
The newly born The Global Economic Forum (TGEF)* kicked off it’s calendar of exciting and thought provoking events with a Brainstorming session on “Aftereffects of Financial Meltdown: World Economy, Five Years Ahead “
On July 20th 2009.
The current Global Financial Meltdown has plunged the world in to the worst crises since the great depression of 1930s.As the Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh said at the G 8 summit in Italy in July 09, though the crises is not of their making, the developing countries have to face the consequences of the meltdown. Hundreds of world renowned companies have collapsed .Millions of people have lost jobs. In spite of stimulus packages running in to billions of dollars introduced by the Govts and bailout acquisitions of MNCs by the States, with the exception of China and India, very few countries are likely to witness reasonably impressive economic growth in coming years.
In such dire times when big economies are shrinking and exports are falling, there is a tendency on the part of Big Economies to raise protectionist barriers. This further affects the developing economies adversely. While, as a result of various corrective measures taken by the Govts, business firms and Industrial Houses there is a faint glimmer of hope of economic growth in the next couple of years, overall picture still remains grim.
As this phenomenon is impacting the whole world and our day to day lives, The Global Economic Forum brought the Economists, academics, diplomats, a business tycoon and an editor on the same platform to brainstorm and come up with some ideas, thoughts, suggestions and recommendations which will not be relevant only for India but the whole world.
TGEF chose a subject for brainstorming which is of Global concern and invited a Panel which has global reach and whose views are heard with attention globally.
In the absence of Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor Emeritus of London School of Economics, Dr. Shankar Acharya, Member Board of Governors, ICRIER, and former member of Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister chaired the session. However, Lord Desai through his written message called for reconfiguration of the fuel use technology, switching over to new carbon efficient technologies and restructuring of financial institutions including International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the aftereffects of economic downturn. “The global financial architecture needs reform and
IMF may need to be restructured to achieve this”, he remarked. Stressing and pointing “financial imbalances in the global economy” as the main reason of the crisis, he averred “China accumulated large financial surpluses from its exports. China along with many other countries of Asia over-saved. To make such savings paying someone had to over-consume. USA did this job by running a double deficit on fiscal and external accounts. The global economy had enjoyed a boom for 15 years. Now, there is a setback. “it is difficult to say who will emerge as new power in the future. Innovations will be called for and once again USA is most likely to be the innovative economy”.
Dwelling on the various aspects that needs to be worked upon in the wake of the crisis, H.E. Sir Charles Richard Vernon Stagg, High Commissioner of United Kingdom said, “we need to find ways going beyond the recapitalization, find new mechanisms to ensure that the financial markets are allocating capital intelligently, productively and effectively and address the issue of regulations, which is the main task in UK”. He stressed that the countries need to resolve these issues with an integrated approach and work collectively, otherwise capital will shift to those markets in which the biggest opportunities lie.” Talking about the international implications of the crisis, H.E. Sir Charles Richard Vernon Stagg outlined imbalances between China and US due to the unjust measures adopted by China of lending money to the US. The need is to find ways to address this without getting into blame game, which may deter people to find solutions ahead.”
Talking about the opportunities that may be thrown up by economic crisis, Mr. Yogendra Kumar Modi, CMD, Great Eastern Energy Corporation Ltd commented that India can take advantage from this crisis. With savings of American consumers going up, India cannot just rely on American consumers, it has to focus on its potentially large domestic market. India needs to ensure that poor masses develop and they get out of poverty. Both service and manufacturing sectors of India have vast opportunities, which needs to be tapped. He hoped that in future financial regulations will not be developed by few, as happened earlier and banking will be left to bankers and speculation to the speculators.
Expressing his views on the challenging topic, Mr. TK Arun- Resident Editor, Economic Times said, “five years ahead world will be shaped not only by the fallout of the financial crisis but by other forces that are equally valid, equally relevant and are pursued by powerful nations of the world; chief among them is attempting to contain climate change by limiting the
emission of green house gases”. He opined, “Five years from now there will come fundamental changes in what is called “war on terror” and its consequences. The world will change for the better. Soon many emerging countries will shake up the lethargy imposed by financial meltdown, the relative weight of these emerging economies will be much higher than what they were before the crisis. More funds will be made available to emerging economies like India and China and savings of the world will be deployed in productive sectors.”
Sounding quite optimistic about the crisis, H. E. Mr. Levent Bilman- Amb. of Turkey said that the present crisis has resulted in gigantic repercussions, countries are facing instability, unemployment is hitting the ceiling and there is nuclear proliferation across the world. Expressing his belief in human beings, he assured that future will be better than today and the situation will improve globally. Highlighting the ways to tide over the present crisis, H. E. said, “financial assistance has to be provided to enterprises, the faith and confidence of the people in the machinery has to be restored, national measures have to be taken in coordination with international measures, these measures should not lead to protectionism and financial institutions should be revamped.”
Expressing his views and summing up the session, Dr. Shankar Acharya- Member Board of Governors, ICRIER said, “growth in advanced economies will revive but it will be a bumpy ride for them because of high unemployment levels, legacy of both toxic acids and high level of leverage debts and global imbalances. Developing countries will recover their growth momentum but the rate of recovery will be comparatively less from 2003- 07. Global Trade, which is 8- 10% at present, will revive but the benefits of globalization will be less. Fiscal Consolidation will be a major challenge in next 4- 5 years.”
Amb. Surendra Kumar- Director General, TGEF and Formerly Secretary, MEA and Dean, Foreign Service Institute (FSI) presented a bird’s eye view of the aims and mission of TGEF and how the forum will keep on organizing such thought provoking seminars and sessions on economic, political and social issues like eradication of poverty, illiteracy, hunger, diseases particularly HIV and AIDS, commerce, trade, Industry and Investment policies. TGEF will also support efforts aimed at addressing the issues of global warming and climatic changes.
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